25 January 2008 by John.

Shell shock was identified during World War I as a condition that causes soldiers to become dazed after being near explosions. Symptoms may appear weeks after exposure and there are no outward signs of injury. Naturally, this was regarded as a psychological rather than physical disorder.

But according to a story in today’s Science Magazine podcast, there is increasing evidence that shell shock is caused by physical trauma to the brain. One theory is that compression waves from the explosion hit the torso and transfer pressure to the brain via the circulatory system. If this theory is true, improved head gear will not help but improved body armor might.

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25 January 2008 by John.

The law of small numbers says that people underestimate the variability in small samples. Said another way, people overestimate what can be accomplished with a small study. Here’s a simple example. Suppose a drug is effective in 80% of patients. If five patients are treated, how many will respond?

Many people reason that 80% means 4 out of 5, so if 5 people are treated, exactly 4 will respond. Always.

Others understand that things are not guaranteed to work out so neatly, but they still believe that it is highly likely that 4 people would respond. Maybe a 90% chance.

In fact, there’s only a 41% chance that exactly 4 would respond out of a sample of 5.

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